On this Substack, I post qualifying bets which are taken from betting ‘systems’: ideas which I think the general betting market underestimates over time. I measure the success of these over time backed to the Betfair Exchange Starting Price (Betfair SP or BSP) (minus Betfair’s minimum 2% commission).
On average, there are 4-5 bets each day but it varies a lot. E.g. during the Cheltenham Festival there are probably going to be quite a lot more. Some systems lend themselves to specific meetings too. Some days - e.g. quite Sundays - there may be no qualifiers. I don’t personally choose busy or quiet days. I design the systems and ideas behind them: after that, I’m at the mercy of the qualifiers they throw up.
All bets are recorded as 1pt win. A small number of horses are qualifiers from two discrete systems - when that happens I'll add an asterisk after the qualifier and record it as two individual 1pt win bets.
I have tested these openly since November 2021. Click on the Results page to see the results to date.
Betting banks and stakes are your own decision, but I personally use a 150pts betting bank. If you choose to follow, please understand the importance of:
Financially and emotionally coping with losing runs and drawdowns. I have regular losing runs, and 2025 has so far been a terrible year where the P/L has gone below my own suggested betting bank. In my results sheet, you can see both in the monthly summaries and the day-to-day recording where these have occurred. Drawdowns are not fun to go through in real time and be prepared for this if you bet.
Getting Betfair's commission amount right in your settings. I record my bets at 2% commission, but Betfair may charge you 5% or 8% unless you change this. Go to “My Account” on your Betfair app. then promotions and rewards to check.
These things are as important for your long-term returns as which horses you choose to bet on any given day.
In November 2024, the Smart Betting Club published a thorough review of my results. This covers a lot of the good about what I do, but also covers the drawdowns in good detail too. I would strongly recommend reading it before you begin betting with me.
Why subscribe?
Subscribe to get the daily qualifiers, as well as occasional posts detailing my approach. Each post will come straight to your email inbox every morning, and as I measure results to Betfair SP you don’t need to worry about rushing or missing out on prices.
How much does it cost?
It’s free: I enjoy doing it as a fun little betting research project and it’s great to provide something interesting for lots of people. If you like, you can buy me a coffee here.
