Finding ideas for systems

As covered in the introductory blog (see below) and is hopefully known to most of you as subscribers now, system betting is a betting approach that involves using consistent criteria to make a bet. I will say more in future blogs about some of the starting theoretical points about ideas, but in this blog I want to try and show how - if you’re ever inclined - begin to think about the sorts of criteria from which to base betting systems.

Specifically, in this blog I use an individual tip from another bettor to draw out a thought process for building betting systems. I'm neither advocating nor dismissing the individual elements of the tip. I'm trying to show the general principle of system betting: that a justification for betting one horse at one point in time can be transformed into an idea that you apply consistently.

I will use a tip written by a prominent horse racing expert - in this case, Hugh Taylor of At The Races - to demonstrate this. Any generally informed bettor’s writing could be a useful guide though.

Here’s a tip Hugh made for a horse running at Beverley - Burlington House - a while ago:

BURLINGTON HOUSE is a profile rather than form-based selection in the 1m2f handicap at Beverley, but he does tick plenty of boxes and looks to have been found a weakish race on his handicap and stable debut in the 1m2f handicap at Beverley (3.30).

He was trained for his first three starts by Henry Spiller, who had a much better record with lightly-raced handicappers than in maidens and novices, and has now joined Dylan Cunha, who has done notably well with acquisitions from other yards.

Burlington House showed definite signs of ability in his three handicapping runs despite a high head carriage. He’s by Zoffany and his action suggests he might take well to softish ground, so although it’s possible he’ll need the run after his long break, in an ordinary-looking race he very much looks the most interesting runner.

Let’s analyse the factors considered by the tipster:

1. Profile. Burlington House has a few characteristics away from recent form as a basis for the selection. In fact, his poor form is part of the value proposition.

2. Trainer change. The tip highlights a change in trainers, from Henry Spiller to Dylan Cunha, both noted for their specific strengths. Spiller excels with lightly-raced handicappers, while Cunha has a good track record with horses acquired from other yards.

3. Signs of ability yet risk too. Despite some quirks, such as a high head carriage, Burlington House has shown ability in previous runs.

4. Pedigree and conditions. The horse’s breeding (by Zoffany) suggests he might perform well on softish ground.

5. Weak competition. The race is described as ordinary-looking, implying that Burlington House has a better chance due to weaker competition than he has faced previously.

The factors used in this tip could be applied - individually or as a combination - to develop a general betting system. For instance:

1. Profile and form. Note the horse's age, sex, number of career runs, days since last run, odds in previous races, distance beaten last time out. Any of these could be more generally applied.

2. Trainer change. You could back any Dylan Cunha new recruit or any horse that recently left Henry Spiller. Or more generally look at unexposed handicappers out for new yards.

3. Quirks. Maybe the market underestimates horses with quirks like high head carriages. Back any horse that displays this criteria.

4. Pedigree. Back any Zoffany offspring running on soft ground for the first time. Or back any offspring of flat sires who performed well in the mud.

5. Competition. This is trickier, but you could base a system around races with a set number of horses meeting criteria you define as "weak".

Again, I'm not saying that any of these specific criteria are good or bad ones to apply. For what it's worth, none of my systems feature Zoffany as a specific stallion, Dylan Cunha as a specific trainer or head carriage as a specific quirk.

But stallion performance more generally is the foundation of some of my systems, as are some specific instances in which horses are out for a new stable, as are changes in the type of competition a horse faces.

And hopefully you begin to get the idea: criteria like a horse's profile, their pedigree, their rivals, their connections and their quirks all form the basis of the individual selections that people make every day. And my general starting point as a system bettor is to ask: which of these criteria might be useful to also apply in all relevant cases?

That's system betting.

In future blogs, I’ll discuss some high-level criteria and ideas I quite like and dislike and why. If you have any questions, or if you have any criteria of your own you’re curious to know the data on, feel free to get in touch (either in the comments or via email/X/Bsky) and if the data is available I’m happy to run the numbers for you.